I've got a couple of match ups this Friday afternoon where I see value based on my TTF calculations.
1:10pm: Red Sox +103 RH Steven Wright (2016: 13-6, 3.33 ERA) vs. Tigers -113 RH Michael Fulmer (2016: 11-7, 3.06)
Each team has played just twice so far. Miguel Cabrera has yet to get a hit for Detroit. I'll take 2-0 BOS (+0.42 TTF rating) for a unit.
4:10pm: Dodgers -144 LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (2016: 0-1, 11.57 ERA) vs. Rockies +130 LH Kyle Freeland (NR)
Mark Reynolds (7-for-15, two homers and six RBIs) is leading Colorado's offense thus far and they'll likely need a few runs to support Freehand, who is making his MLB debut.
The Dodgers are 3-1, but that record is against the lowly Padres. COL (+0.741 TTF rating) is worth a 1 unit shot at home at this price.
3:15pm Update - Evening plays
8:05pm: Athletics +126 RH Raul Alcantara (2016: 1-3, 7.25 ERA) vs. Rangers -140 RH A.J. Griffin (2016: 7-4, 5.07)
Texas has yet to win this season, primarily because of a suspect pitching (21 runs yielded in first 3 games). Kris Davis and Ryon Healy each have a pair of homers thus far for Oakland. A's rate a +0.532 TTF for this match up. Take them for a unit.
8:10pm: Cubs -161 LH Brett Anderson (2016: 1-2, 11.91 ERA) vs. Brewers +145 RH Jimmy Nelson (2016: 8-16, 4.62)
Chicago took 2 of 3 in the opening series vs. rival Cardinals. Milwaukee managed just one win in their 4 game series vs. Colorado. This play is a fade on Anderson and the TTF rating of MIL +1.03. Brewers for 1 unit.
8:15pm: Reds +149 LH Amir Garrett (2016: NR) vs. Cardinals -165 RH Mike Leake (2016: 9-12, 4.69 ERA)
Cincinnati's Adam Duvall is 5-11 to start the season for the 2-1 Reds. St. Louis' offense has yet to get into full swing and they may have problems with the young lefty Garrett. Nice value on the Reds with their +0.513 TTF rating. One unit play.
Good luck, players!
Leave a Reply