5/19 – Rockets at Warriors

9pm - Houston at Golden State -10.5  O/U 220

Game 1 of the Western Conference finals sees a double digit point spread.  This surprises me a little as Golden State is just 2-3 ATS at home in these playoffs, and theoretically, the competition should be getting stiffer.

The Rockets come in with huge momentum after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to take down the Clippers in 7 games.  G James Harden has proven to be a worthy MVP runner-up with averages of 26.7 points, 8.0 assists and 4.8 rebounds per games in these playoffs.  He'll get a chance to go up against the MVP himself.

Speaking of which, league MVP G Stephen Curry has led his Warriors to the NBA's best record and are one series away from the Finals.  Curry has playoff averages of 28.2 / 6.8 / 5.1.  Very similar to Harden's stats.  I expect these two to balance each other out with the remaining players ultimately deciding this game and then the series.

Golden State swept the regular season series 4-0 and I think they'll win the series, too.  I don't think they'll sweep, though.

I really think that Houston has enough talent with Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, Josh Smith and Jason Terry to go along with Harden that they'll compete in each game.  Therefore, I'll be taking the points tonight.

Golden State 105  Houston 101

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