NFL – Wildcard Playoff Games

We've got two games each on Saturday and Sunday this NFL wildcard weekend.  I've got all 4 games rated with the FSI formula along with a brief analysis on them.

Good luck, players!

Sat., Jan 7 - 4:35pmOakland +3.5Houston -3.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)+3.3-2.6
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+0.5 (9 - 38.7)-0.5 (24 - 31.4)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (20 - 24.1)+0.5 (11 - 20.5)
QB Rating (rating)-1.5 Cook (83.4)-1.5 Osweiler (72.2)
Home Field0+3
Calculated Relative Spread -3.4+3.4
Pick (units)OAK +3.5 (4 units)-------
The big news for this match up is the QB situation for both teams. I don't think it matters much, because no matter who either team trots out, it won't be very good. Houston, and coach O'Brien will certainly have last years embarrassing 30-0 home playoff loss to the Chiefs on their mind. With the OAK -3.4 FSI rating, a +155 ML play is recommended, too.
Sat., Jan 7 - 8:15pmDetroit +8Seattle -8
Simple Rating System (SRS)-1.4+2.1
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1 (7 - 41.0)+0.5 (12 - 37.8)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (13 - 22.4)+1.5 (3 - 18.3)
QB Rating (rating)0 Stafford (93.3)-0.5 Wilson (92.6)
Home Field0+3
Calculated Relative Spread (differential)+7.0-7.0
Pick (units)DET +8 (1 unit)-------
The Seahawks don't have a great team this season, but they're still 7-1 at home, where CenturyLink Field gives them a great home field advantage. The Lions are just 3-5 on the road this season. I believe the Seattle wins, but it'll be relatively low scoring so I'll bet on a Detroit to cover the number.
Sun., Jan. 8, 1:05pmMiami +10Pittsburgh -10
Simple Rating System (SRS)-2.4+4.7
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-1 (26 - 30.3)+0.5 (11 - 38.5)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (18 - 23.8)+0.5 (10 - 20.4)
QB Rating (rating)+1.5 Moore (105.6)0 Roethlisberger (95.4)
Home Field0+3
Calculated Relative Spread+10.6-10.6
Pick (units)-------PIT -10 (1 unit)
The Steelers opted to rest their key players Sunday and as a result, will enter this Sunday's game rested and healthy. Dolphin QB Matt Moore has put up decent numbers since replacing the injured Tannehill, but Roethlisberger, Brown, Bell and company will be too much at home.
Sun., Jan. 8, 4:40pmN.Y. Giants +4Green Bay -4
Simple Rating System (SRS)+2.1+2.8
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-1.5 (31 - 28.0)+1.5 (4 - 43.8)
Defense (rank - ppg)+1.5 (2 - 17.8)-0.5 (21 - 24.3)
QB Rating (rating)-1.5 Manning (86.0)+1.5 Rodgers (104.2)
Home Field0+3
Calculated Relative Spread+7.7-7.7
Pick (units)-------GB -4 (2 units)
Can the Giants defense that has been exceptional keep Aaron Rodgers in check? That's the million dollar question. I believe they do, but I also believe that New York's offense, which hasn't reached 20 points the last 4 games, will continue to struggle, too. I see something like a 23-16 Green Bay win. That was the score of their Oct. 9th game at Lambeau.

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