NFL – Week 1







The Calculated Relative Spread (CRS) is back for 2016.  I've changed it up somewhat regarding the categories and values in the formula.  You can read a full detailed explanation of the CRS here.

For week 1, I'll be using 2015 stats, so please keep that in mind if you're using the tables in your handicapping process.

I'll be adding the tables as the week progresses so check back periodically if your looking for a specific game I haven't gotten to yet.

A reminder, I no longer require a subscription to access the handicapping tables, including these NFL Calculated Relative Spread (CRS) tables.  I want as many players as possible to have access to this handicapping tool.  Instead, I'm taking a leap of faith in relying on those that see a benefit in using the tables to contribute an amount in line with what they think it's worth to them.  It's an easy PayPal.Me transaction here.  Thank you in advance.

Week 1 tables below:

Thursday, Sept. 8 8:30pmCarolina -3Denver +3
Simple Rating System (SRS)+8.1+5.8
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1.5 (2 - 42.9)-0.5 (24 - 31.2)
Defense (rank - ppg)+1 (6 - 19.3)+1.5 (4 - 18.5)
QB Rating (rating)+1 Newton (99.2)0 Siemian (-)
Home Field0+3
Totals+11.6+9.8
Calculated Relative Spread -1.8+1.8
Pick (units)-------DEN +3 (1 unit)
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
Despite being the reigning Super Bowl champions and coming off a two touchdown dominating performance over the Panthers in February, the Broncos must once again earn the respect they just can’t seem to get from anywhere outside of Denver.
Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmTampa Bay +3Atlanta -3
Simple Rating System (SRS)-7.7-3.8
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)0 (13 - 35.8)0 (17 - 34.5)
Defense (rank - ppg)-1 (26 - 26.1)0 (14 - 21.6)
QB Rating (rating)-1.5 Winston (84.2)-1 Ryan (89.0)
Home Field0+3
Totals-8.2-1.8
Calculated Relative Spread (differential)+6.4-6.4
Pick (units)-------ATL -3 (2 units)
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The Falcons, who started last season 6-1, didn't make the playoffs because they went 1-5 in division, finishing 8-8 in 2015. The Bucs have a definitely Falcons flavor to them now after Dirk Koetter was elevated to the head coaching position and he hired Mike Smith as his defensive coordinator.
Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmBuffalo +3Baltimore -3
Simple Rating System (SRS)0.0-1.9
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)0 (15 - 34.9)0 (20 - 33.3)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (15 - 22.4)-0.5 (24 - 25.1)
QB Rating (rating)+1 Taylor (99.4)-1.5 Flacco (83.1)
Home Field0+3
Totals+1-0.9
Calculated Relative Spread-1.9+1.9
Pick (units)BUF +3 (3 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
Bills QB Tyrod Taylor spent the first four years of his career as an understudy to Ravens QB Joe Flacco. Now, Taylor is an established starter in the NFL, ready to line up across the field from his former teammate.
Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmChicago +6.5Houston -6.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)-1.3-0.8
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+0.5 (10 - 37.4)-1 (28 - 28.9)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (13 - 24.8)+0.5 (24 - 19.6)
QB Rating (rating)-0.5 Cutler (92.3)-1.5 Osweiler (86.4)
Home Field0+3
Totals-1.3+0.2
Calculated Relative Spread+1.5-1.5
Pick (units)CHI +6.5 (3 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
Looking to improve on last year's 6-10 record, the Bears will open the regular season on the road for the first time since 2009, snapping a string of six straight home openers. The Texans are the only current NFL team the Bears have never defeated. Houston is 3-0 in the series, recording wins by scores of 24-5 in 2004, 31-24 in 2008 and 13-6 in 2012.


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Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmGreen Bay -5.5Jacksonville +5.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)+5.3-7.5
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-0.5 (20 - 33.3)0 (18 - 34.2)
Defense (rank - ppg)+0.5 (12 - 20.2)-1.5 (31 - 28.0)
QB Rating (rating)-0.5 Rodgers (92.7)-1 Bortles (88.2)
Home Field0+3
Totals+4.8-7
Calculated Relative Spread-11.8+11.8
Pick (units)GB -5.5 (4 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
Green Bay has gone 10-3 straight up in its past 13 games as road chalk. The Jaguars have covered the spread in the past three meetings with Green Bay and continue to improve both offensively and defensively under fourth-year head coach Gus Bradley.
Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmSan Diego +7Kansas City -7
Simple Rating System (SRS)-2.6+9.0
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)0 (19 - 33.7)+0.5 (9 - 37.9)
Defense (rank - ppg)-0.5 (21 - 24.9)+1.5 (3 - 17.9)
QB Rating (rating)0 Rivers (93.8)0 Smith (95.4)
Home Field0+3
Totals-3.1+14
Calculated Relative Spread+17.1-17.1
Pick (units)-------KC -7 (5 units)
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The Chiefs are 30-16 in QB Alex Smith’s starts, a .652 win rate, and have earned playoff berths in two of his three seasons in Kansas City. Going into Sunday, the Chargers have lost four consecutive games to the Chiefs for the first time since the early 1990s.

Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmOakland +1New Orleans -1
Simple Rating System (SRS)-0.2-6.6
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-0.5 (22 - 31.8)+0.5 (11 - 36.3)
Defense (rank - ppg)-0.5 (21 - 24.9)-1.5 (32 - 29.8)
QB Rating (rating)-0.5 Carr (91.1)+1 Brees (101.0)
Home Field0+3
Totals-1.7-3.6
Calculated Relative Spread-1.9+1.9
Pick (units)OAK +1 (2 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The good news for the Saints is that Sean Payton is undefeated in home openers (4-0). Look for both QB's, Oakland's Carr and New Orleans' Brees to take advantage of poor defenses in what could possibly be the highest scoring game in Week 1
Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmCincinnati -2.5N.Y. Jets +2.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)+10.6+1.5
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1 (39.6)0 (35.7)
Defense (rank - ppg)+1.5 (2- 17.4)+1 (7 - 19.6)
QB Rating (rating)+1.5 Dalton (106.2)-1 Fitzpatrick (88.0)
Home Field0+3
Totals+14.6+4.5
Calculated Relative Spread-10.1+10.1
Pick (units)CIN -2.5 (4 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The New York Jets are 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread over their last five season openers. The Bengals went 12-2-2 against the spread last season, making them the best bet in the league other than the Minnesota Vikings.
Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmCleveland +4Philadelphia -4
Simple Rating System (SRS)-6.1-4.6
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-1 (25 - 29.8)-1 (27 - 29.1)
Defense (rank - ppg)-1.5 (29 - 27.0)-1 (28 - 26.9)
QB Rating (rating)0 Griffin III (-)0 Wentz (-)
Home Field0+3
Totals-8.6-3.6
Calculated Relative Spread+5-5
Pick (units)-------PHI -4 (1 unit)
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The second overall pick in this year's NFL draft, Carson Wentz, makes his NFL debut under center for the Eagles. Meanwhile, Robert Griffin III looks to revive his career leading the offense for a Browns squad with nowhere to go but up.


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Sunday, Sept. 11 1:00pmMinnesota -2.5Tennessee +2.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)+5.8-10.5
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1 (7 - 38.4)-1.5 (30 - 25.7)
Defense (rank - ppg)+1 (5 - 18.9)-1 (27 - 26.4)
QB Rating (rating)-1.5 Hill (39.6)-0.5 Mariota (91.5)
Home Field0+3
Totals+6.3-10.5
Calculated Relative Spread-16.8+16.8
Pick (units)MIN -2.5 (5 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The Titans have lost 12 of their past 13 home games straight up, and they have also gone 3-12-1 against the spread in their past 16 games. Zimmer's coaching helped the Vikings become the best team ATS a year ago at 14-3, and they have covered seven in a row away from home and five straight overall.
Sunday, Sept. 11 4:05pmMiami +10.5Seattle -10.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)-6.8+11.3
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-1.5 (35.7)+1.5 (4 - 42.0)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (19 - 24.3)+1.5 (1 - 17.3)
QB Rating (rating)-1 Tannehill (88.7)+1.5 Wilson (110.1)
Home Field0+3
Totals-9.3+18.8
Calculated Relative Spread+28.1-28.1
Pick (units)-------SEA -10.5 (5 units)
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The Dolphins have a new head coach in former offensive coordinator Adam Gase, who held that position previously with the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos. The Seahawks are an impressive 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 as double-digit favorites.
Sunday, Sept. 11 4:25pmN.Y. Giants +1Dallas -1
Simple Rating System (SRS)-3.6-6.9
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1 (8 - 38.2)-0.5 (23 - 31.4)
Defense (rank - ypg)-1.5 (30 - 27.6)0 (16 - 23.4)
QB Rating (rating)0 Manning (93.6)0 Prescott (-)
Home Field0+3
Totals-4.1-4.4
Calculated Relative Spread-0.3+0.3
O/U (units) total pts. projectionNYG +1 (1 unit)-------
Pick (units)
Comments:
New York is coming off a 6-10 season, after which they parted ways with two-time Super Bowl champion head coach Tom Coughlin. These teams have met in Week 1 three of the previous four seasons, with Dallas winning and covering all three of those games.

Sunday, Sept. 11 4:25pmDetroit +3.5Indianapolis -3.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)-0.2-6.7
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)0 (16 - 34.6)-1 (26 - 29.4)
Defense (rank - ppg)-0.5 (23 - 25.0)-1 (25 - 25.5)
QB Rating (rating)+0.5 Stafford (97.0)-1.5 Luck (74.9)
Home Field0+3
Totals-0.2-7.2
Calculated Relative Spread-7.0+7.0
Pick (units)DET +3.5 (5 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
Indianapolis has won each of the past four meetings with Detroit SU to go along with a 3-1 mark ATS. The under has cashed in five of Detroit's last six road games, and it's 6-1 in Indy's previous seven when favored by four points or less.
Sunday, Sept. 11 8:30pmNew England +6Arizona -6
Simple Rating System (SRS)+7.0+12.3
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1.5 (1 - 43.2)+1.5 (3 - 42.5)
Defense (rank - ppg)+0.5 (10 - 19.7)+1 (7 - 19.6)
QB Rating (rating)0 Garoppolo (-)+1.5 Palmer (104.6)
Home Field0+3
Totals+9+19.3
Calculated Relative Spread+10.3-10.3
Pick (units)-------ARI -6 (3 units)
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The Patriots were 3-6 against the spread (ATS) on the road in 2015, including playoffs. When QB Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals are 20–4, counting playoffs, the past two seasons. When he doesn’t, they are 5-6.
Monday, Sept. 12 7:10pmPittsburgh -3Washington +3
Simple Rating System (SRS)+8.7-1.9
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)+1 (5 - 40.5)+0.5 (12 - 36.1)
Defense (rank - ppg)+0.5 (11 - 19.9)0 (17 - 23.7)
QB Rating (rating)0 Roethlisberger (94.5)+1 Cousins (101.6)
Home Field0+3
Totals+10.2+2.6
Calculated Relative Spread-7.6+7.6
Pick (units)PIT -3 (3 units)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
Recently, the Steelers have not done well on opening day, having gone 1-4 outright and 0-4-1 against the spread in Week 1 over the last five years. At home, Washington is 5-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games.
Monday, Sept. 12 10:20pmLos Angeles -2.5San Francisco +2.5
Simple Rating System (SRS)-0.2-5.5
Drive Scoring Avg. (Sc%)-1.5 (32 - 24.5)-1.5 (29 - 25.8)
Defense (rank - ppg)0 (13 - 20.6)0 (18 - 24.2)
QB Rating (rating)-1 Keenum (87.7)-1.5 Gabbert (86.2)
Home Field0+3
Totals-2.7-5.5
Calculated Relative Spread-2.8+2.8
Pick (units)LA -2.5 (1 unit)-------
O/U (units) total pts. projection
Comments:
The 49ers were simply woeful against the run last season, allowing 126.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking them No. 29 in the league. The Rams are back in Southern California after a 21-year stay in St. Louis.


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