Calculated Relative Spread (NFL) Formula Explained

This is a general explanation of the exclusive Calculated Relative Spread (CRS) formula as it pertains to NFL match ups.  Quite simply it's the use of several key statistics which, when input into the CRS formula, results in a numeric value for a teams relative strength, or rating, entering the contest.

The following are the 5 items that are used in the CRS to come up with the teams rating for the match up.

  1.  Overall team rating that takes into account record, strength of schedule and margin of    victory.
  2.  Quarterback rating
  3.  Key team offensive statistic
  4.  Key team defensive statistic
  5.  Home field

The differential of the teams' ratings is the CRS.  We'll then use the CRS in relation to the actual spread to determine our recommended bet, as well as the number of units to bet.

For example:  If the Steelers are a 7 point favorite over the Browns according to the Vegas line, but the CRS calculates them as a 10 point favorite, we'll recommend Pittsburgh -7 (one unit) based on the favorable CRS rating.  Conversely, if the CRS calculates the Steelers as just a 5 point favorite, we'll recommend Cleveland +7 (one unit) for this match up.

I use a 1-3 unit scale and apply the number of units in relation to the differential between the CRS and actual spread.

I like to call the CRS a "true spread".  This simply means that it is true in the sense that it doesn't factor in public perception or the money bet on either side.  The CRS is similar to what the bookmakers use to set their initial lines, but those lines get corrupted with the aforementioned public perception and money.

I hope you'll find my CRS information useful throughout the upcoming NFL season and that it will be helpful in the quest of increasing your bankroll.

Good luck, players!