The following is a general explanation of my Calculated Relative Spread (CRS) formula relative to college football. This is an offshoot of my NFL version of the formula.
There are three statistical categories that make up the CRS, plus home field advantage when applicable. Here are the 4 categories.
1. A general overall team rating
2. A key team offensive statistic
3. A key team defensive statistic
4. Home field
These four metrics are then plugged into the formula to come up with a team rating for the match up.
The differential between the teams ratings results in the Calculated Relative Spread, with the team with the higher rating being the favorite per the CRS.
Next, I compare the CRS to the actual Vegas and offshore spreads. The differential of the two spreads will determine the betting recommendation. The higher the differential, the larger the unit recommendation will be. I use a 1 - 3 unit scale.
I will also generally recommend a money line bet on the underdog if my CRS rates that team the favorite.
It should be noted that my CRS does not factor in any intangibles such as injuries or weather. If there is a significant intangible for a match up that I feel conflicts with, or compromises my CRS calculation, I will simply pass on the contest.
By utilizing the CRS, and factoring it into your handicapping, you will have better knowledge of what the true spread should be. Please remember that the Vegas and offshore lines are set based on similar models, but they are influenced initially by public perception and then consequently by the actual money bet on each side once the line is released. With the CRS, you will have a relatively true spread, outside the betting influence, to make an educated betting decision relative to the bookmakers line. Just like the sharp bettors.
Good luck, players!
