The following is an explanation of my Formulated Spread Indicator (FSI) which is used to predict outcomes of NBA and NCAAB games. The FSI is very similar to the formula the bookmakers use to set their lines. The difference being that the bookmakers lines then get adjusted relative to the public perception and amount of action on each side. The FSI is in essence, the "true" spread.
The FSI formula takes into consideration 4 factors which I believe are the best 4 indicators to predict a true and accurate spread. Once the FSI is calculated, I take this number relative to the Vegas spread in order to come up with the pick as well as the number of units to wager.
Without giving away the explicit details of my proprietary formula, I am happy to provide this general guide.
Factor 1 - A general metric that rates a team's overall performance relative to it's strength of schedule.
Factor 2 - An offensive team rating
Factor 3 - A defensive team rating
Factor 4 - Home court
Using these 4 factors, I have developed a formula that results in a de-facto point spread based on the difference of the competing teams overall rating for the match up. The "true" or FSI spread. Then, as I mentioned above, I compare my FSI spread to the Vegas line to make a recommendation. Obviously, the greater the variance, the greater betting advantage as seen by the FSI.
I use a 1 - 3 unit scale for my recommendations. Also, I should note that the FSI does not take into account any intangibles such as injuries, back-to-back games, etc. so I will simply pass on the game if I determine an intangible has impacted the Vegas line.
Good luck, players!